There is a long way to go in the 2023/24 Premier League season, so fans of most clubs not called Manchester United won’t be too worried about their early season form and results. Nonetheless, there is a growing narrative about the gulf in class between the promoted teams and those firmly established in the top division. Three of last year’s promoted teams – Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town – are mired in the bottom four at the time of writing, but perhaps more worryingly, there is a clear line of demarcation between 15th place and the bottom five, with Everton and Bournemouth joining the aforementioned three in having an auspiciously tough start to the season.
Both Luton and Sheffield United are quoted as short as 1/5 to go down in the Premier League relegation odds. You can understand why. On the current trajectory, Sheffield United are on track to end up with 5 pts by the end of the season; Bournemouth 11; Luton, Burnley and Everton 22. Now, we know from experience that won’t happen. But the start has been historically bad when looking at the teams as a collective, all of whom would be relegated in every Premier League season on the current trajectory.
35 should be the new magic number
Regardless of what occurs, we know that the quintet is a long way from the fabled 40 points to guarantee safety. But in truth, that number has become almost meaningless as a target. Indeed, 35 is a much better target as a magic number. The mean average required to stay up in the past five seasons is 34. 35 is the median average, which was required in the 2022/23 season, 2019/2020 season, and the 2020/21 season. The 2010/2011 was the last season where 40 points were required to stay up.
Trends rarely go up or down in straight lines, of course. But we can broadly say that the number of points to ensure safety has been trending downward in recent years. Managers of struggling clubs will, therefore, consider the 40-point mark as not just a target to narrowly avoid relegation, but one that will see them avoid it comfortably. 40 pts was good enough for 14th place last season (West Ham), 15th the season before (Southampton), and it would have provided a 12-point cushion on the relegation zone in 2020/21.
Record lows could be recorded for basement clubs
While we have argued that some of the teams will remedy their slow starts to the season – in our view, Everton, for example, have been much better than their points tally shows – it is nonetheless highly likely that we end up with a magic number much, much lower than 40, perhaps much lower than 35. It’s true that the teams at the bottom will pick up points from playing each other – as Burnley did against Luton, and which Luton in turn did against Everton – but this will only get them so far.
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We opened by pointing out that it is much too early to make assumptions and predictions about the rest of the season, particularly with most teams having 30 or more games to play. But even at this early stage, we might argue that a team getting seven or eight wins and a handful of draws might be enough to escape relegation. Time will tell, but it looks like anyone getting 40 points will not just avoid relegation, but do so with significant ease.
